宏利(945)最新資料分享

備注: 2月份寫過宏利的股性因為投資保證而改變, 下面的新聞, 可以算是一個新的注腳

宏利 （ 945 ） 的 死 穴 ， 是 基 金 保 證 會 隨 股 市 下 滑 成 為 負 累 ， 但 就 算 股市 回 穩 ， 單 單 是暴 露 弱 點 ， 將 形 象 由 一 隻 十 分 穩 健 的 股 票 ， 降 級 至一 隻 頗 具 風 險 的 股 票 ， 估 值 已 要大 幅 下 調 。

依舊維持宏利會比大市波動的看法 - 市升宏利會升得比大市多, 反之亦然 - 不要再用老皇曆去看這隻股票

TORONTO (Dow Jones)--Shares of Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC) are down sharply Monday after the insurance company made a series of surprise announcements late Friday that could cut its earnings outlook. A steep drop on the Toronto Stock Exchange is contributing to the sell-off.

In Toronto, Manulife is off C$2.93, or 12.6%, to C$20.32 on 9.7 million shares.

"They've had a quadruple whammy," said Barry Schwartz, vice-president and portfolio manager at Baskin Financial Services.

Not only did Manulife announce late last week that its highly regarded chief financial officer, Peter Rubenovich, would retire shortly, it also said it was under investigation by the Ontario Securities Commission for failing to properly disclose its variable-annuity exposure. And it noted that while it will benefit from the equity market's gains in the second quarter, it still had to raise reserves because of other factors, including low bond yields.

On Monday, the stock is under further pressure as the Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX Composite Index is down about 3.4% on a steep drop in commodity prices.

Because of its large variable annuity and segregated fund business, Manulife's shares are extremely vulnerable to movements in the overall market. Before Monday, its shares had risen by more than 150% since early March, compared to the S&P/TSX's 37% gain.

"When the market goes down, it goes down double," Schwartz said.

Investors have likely been spooked by the burst of announcements late Friday, although most observers appear divided over the impact.

News that the OSC is investigating the company's disclosure appears to have been the biggest surprise, although many analysts believe the long-term impact will be minimal.

The "worst-case" scenario is likely a minimal fine, said Scotia Capital, which felt Manulife's disclosure surpasses most of its peers. "We would be surprised if the issue were to be resolved in a manner that is detrimental to the firm's financial condition," said RBC Capital Markets, but TD Newcrest suggested the probe could "further tarnish" the company's franchise value.

Schwartz noted the investing community had been taken by surprise last year to learn of how sensitive Manulife was to movements in the equity markets, and said the OSC was probably right to take a closer look.

Investors are also concerned about Rubenovich's impending retirement, although his replacement was widely applauded. Rubenovich had been a key player in Manulife's growth into an international insurance giant over the past 14 years, Schwartz said. However, others said new Chief Executive Donald Guloien is building his own team, as widely expected.

And the company's announcement that it won't enjoy the full benefits of the equity market's gains since March because of "actuarial reserve increases reflecting lower corporate bond rates, a more conservative assessment of policyholder behaviour, lower investment returns and other factors," led to a rapid revision of second-quarter earnings estimates. RBC and Scotia both cut their quarterly outlook.

Still, Schwartz said his view on the company isn't radically different now. "It's still a well-run company, still a great business, and there's a good dividend here," he said. "I'm certainly considering buying more of the stock."

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090622-708691.html

Six weeks into the role, Manulife Financial Corp.'s (MFC-T20.42-2.83-12.17%) new chief executive officer is steering the insurer in a new, more conservative direction that marks a dramatic shift from his predecessor's.

Donald Guloien intends to raise the company's financial cushions and is warning that rising stock markets won't quickly undo the damage wrought by plunging markets. That's in contrast with former CEO Dominic D'Alessandro's insistence that when stock markets rose, the company would release some of its built-up financial reserves back into profits.

The company's new stance, which it signalled in a statement released Friday evening, is causing the market to rethink the company's earnings power.

Manulife shares dropped 12.2 per cent to $20.42 Monday as the market digested both the shift, and news, also made public on Friday, that staff of the Ontario Securities Commission have reached a preliminary conclusion that the company did not properly disclose the risks associated with its variable annuities and segregated funds business.

Until the day of his retirement last month, Mr. D'Alessandro denounced federal regulators for requiring that Manulife set aside what he felt was too much capital to backstop investment guarantees to customers.

In a key divergence, Mr. Guloien is now saying that the market, regulators and rating agencies are likely to expect higher levels of capital in future and so, even though Manulife's levels are near the highest they've ever been, he plans to raise them further.

Equally important, he said that a significant portion of the much-anticipated financial benefit the company is receiving thanks to the rebound in stock markets will be lost to other issues, such as the need to boost reserves because the environment is causing some actuarial assumptions to change.

It's this shift in Manulife's strategy and tone that's giving investors pause.

The variable annuity business, which is at the heart of the company's problems, sells products similar to personal pension or retirement plans, where Manulife invests a customer's money and promises future payments. As a result, the insurer built up a massive stock portfolio, which it chose to leave unhedged.

When markets plummeted last year, eating at the portfolio, Manulife had to raise billions in capital to make up for a widening shortfall in the amount it had promised to pay customers decades from now. At the end of March, it had made promises to customers totalling $103.7-billion, but only had $74-billion in its portfolio backing the business. As a result, the company has put aside additional reserves and capital to the tune of $13.4-billion.

Last week, Manulife received a notice from regulators warning that an investigation is under way. The Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) appears to be examining whether Manulife properly disclosed, prior to last fall, how much risk it would face if markets tanked, noted Genuity Capital Markets analyst Mario Mendonca. Before then, Manulife only disclosed what would happen to it if stock markets fell by 10 per cent. Markets dropped more than 20 per cent in the fourth quarter.

Mr. D'Alessandro had been frank about acknowledging that he did not foresee stock markets plunging to the extent they did. “I don't think I'm alone in saying I didn't foresee an event of this severity. I love it when people say ‘Why didn't you forecast it? Aren't you paid to know these things?' Well, I know a lot of things, but I didn't know that,” he said in an interview last year.

Senator Percy Downe, onetime chief of staff to former prime minister Jean Chrétien, said he began sending letters about Manulife to the country's insurance regulator after being contacted by a number of Prince Edward Islanders who were worried about their investments. His concern was whether the insurer was holding sufficient capital.

Analysts do not expect the OSC's probe, which could result in formal proceedings, to have a large financial impact on the company.

But they are scaling back their earnings estimate based on the shift in Mr. Guloien's comments. With stock markets up, Mr. Mendonca had expected the company to benefit to the tune of $3.5-billion in its second-quarter profits. He now expects about $2.5-billion to be taken up by lower returns in real estate and other investments, the need to boost reserves because of lower corporate bond yields, more conservative assumptions about how many segregated fund policies might lapse, and other issues.

RBC Dominion Securities Inc. analyst André-Philippe Hardy cut his second-quarter earnings per share estimate to $1 from $1.83. And he expects Mr. Guloien to revise the company's return-on-equity targets down to the 13- to 15-per-cent range, from 16 per cent.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/manulifes-new-ceo-steers-clear-of-risk/article1192639/

投資如長跑不應求high

投資如長跑不應求high

近來對一本書(村上春樹的<<關於跑步我說的其實是...>>)和一套電視劇(《巾幗梟雄》)蠻有共鳴。

自己以管理別人金錢為生, 是一個職業的投資者, 如果要用兩個字去形容投資帶來的感覺, 毫無疑問, 是「辛苦」。每天清早6點起來, 8點前回到公司, 8點開始交易, 如果中午沒有飯局, 會一直坐在電腦前到傍晚。吃過晚飯, 又開始在美市作戰, 一晚總會醒來幾次看一下市況, 一週五日, 除了元旦, 復活節和聖誕節外, 基本上是沒有假期。又不像電影<<賭神>><<賭聖>>, 可以「曬泠」一舖就天下大定。反過來自己的職業更像馬拉松跑步, 除了兩者在精神跟肉體上皆帶來痛苦外, 更要不斷達到自己事情所定的目標, 而不是要戰勝別人。就像村上在書中寫道:「跑過全程馬拉松就會知道, 在比賽中勝過或敗給某個特定的人, 對跑者來說並不是重要..小說家這種職業 -- 至少對我來說 -- 沒有勝負之分... 寫出來的東西能不能達到自己所設定的基準, 比甚麼都重要...所以說長距離賽跑得有挑戰的目標或對象的話, 那應該就是過去的自己」。

有時候, 會收到讀者的電郵, 說自己的回報一年可以達到多少多少, 要與自己的回報率比較。很多時只會禮貌地「忽悠式」回應, 投資不是與人競賽, 你跑得快過我, 恭喜你。但你贏幾多, 對我來說, 是一個non-issue。自己99年試過由2萬元「打白頭片」打到1百萬, 但當年一窮二白, 「有前無後打死罷就」。本少, 包袱輕, 自然打得兇狠, 就像跑100米, 在最少時間拼命低頭狂衝, 當時也覺得自己是股神級級數。但人生不可能永遠「打死罷就」, 就像不可能以跑100米的步速連續跑10公里。你跑短, 我改了跑長, 本質不同, 緣何要比較?

買投資書和看投資專欄, 應該要留意作者的心態和手法跟自己的投資目標是否配合。假如閤下是25歲, 有5萬元的積蓄, 信奉宏利(945)匯豐(5)為天下神股, 求5年升1倍, 看似很偉大, 但就算如願以償, 到37歲時5萬元會升值到20萬, 買樓作首期仍是有點勉強, 是大注博小贏的格局, 根本不適合年輕本錢不夠豐厚的朋友。反觀退休人仕, 千萬要避免高槓桿高借貸一注獨贏, 應該學會以股票, 黃金, 債劵及現金去建築一個攻守兼備的組合。世間上沒有一個適合任何人的投資策略和目標回報,也沒有適合所有人的投資方程式。明白了這一點, 不勉強仿效, 會走少很多冤枉路, 輸少很多冤枉錢, 也不會過分保守和進取。

下次閤下撈到低位, 很high, 不用特地告訴我。自己操作就像跑馬拉松, 不是求high, 但求按既定目標完成, 不會「無里頭」大「揩」 。